Brexit - choose the best option №1!

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Brexit is an acronym of “British Exit”, which means the United Kingdom’s decision to hold a referendum on June 23, 2016 to leave the European Union (EU). Voting results of challenging expectations and marketing around the world must suffer. With the problem of British Pounds falling to the lowest level compared to the dollar in the past 30 years. The former Prime Minister David Cameron called the referendum and campaigned for England in the EU announcement the next day. Theresa May, Cameron representatives as the leader of the Conservative Party and the Prime Minister became a voluntary party leader on June 7, 2019. After facing severe pressures to resign and failing three times to get the agreement for the month of Commons, the month later, Boris Johnson, former London mayor, foreign minister and the newspaper editor The Spectator was chosen as the Prime Minister.

Johnson Brexit supporters who work hard, have a campaign on the platform to leave the European Union within the October deadline “made or dead” and said that he was ready to leave the European Union without agreement. The British negotiations and the European Union agreed in the new divorce agreement on October 17, the main difference from the agreement of May is the backstop sentence of Ireland. The United Kingdom was scheduled to leave the European Union by October 31, 1929, but the UK parliament voted to force the government to find a way to extend the time and postpone the resolution in the new agreement. The government has extended the duration of the dialogue three times to avoid traveling without ratification agreement with the European Union or “hard brexit”.

What happened next

Since the Parliament decided to cancel Johnson’s agreement on October 19, resulting in a thing called the Bench Act. The Prime Minister was forced to ask the European Union to extend the negotiation period until 31 January 2020, which is not clear. All 27 EU members will agree to expand But Johnson will push for general elections if received “Until January or longer,” Previously, he proposed to have a quick election. But the conservative party leader cannot accept two-thirds of all MPs to support him as needed. If he succeeded this time would be the third general election of the United Kingdom in five years.

Brexit law draft or laws that need to pass before his agreement will be approved. Or proceed with support from members of the House of Representatives but the schedule of pushing through the parliament in three days was rejected Member of the House of Representatives hope to have a soft BREXIT, which makes the United Kingdom in the Customs Union group of the group that is expected to present the amendment of Johnson negotiations with the European Union.

The government must ratify the withdrawal agreement with the European Union before leaving if it wants to avoid the exit being chaotic. If the UK left the European Union without ratification The agreement will not change in the last 14 months. The UK and the European Union are intended to negotiate a new long-term trade agreement during the change period. Which will remain Until the end of 2020, if the WTO rule agreement will be effective.

Referendum

“Out of” won the referendum in June 2016 with a score of 51.9% or 17.4 million votes; “Remain” received 48.1% or 16.1 million. The product is 72.2%. The result is comprehensive throughout the United Kingdom. But the overall number hides the regional difference: 53.4% of the British voters support Brexit compared to 38.0% of the Scottish voters.

Section 50 Negotiation period

The process of leaving the European Union began officially on 29 March 2017, which may cause Section 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. The initial United Kingdom has two years from the date to negotiate a new relationship with the European Union. After the quick election on June 8, 2017 May is still the leader of the country. However, the Conservative Party lost a majority in Parliament. And agreed with the agreement with the Democratic Union Party, Euro This caused the hassle later.

There was a discussion on June 19, 2017. The question was circulated throughout the process. Partly because the Constitution of the United Kingdom is not written and partly because there is no country out of the European Union using Section 50 earlier.

On 25 November 2018, the United Kingdom and the European Union agreed in the 585 withdrawal agreement. The Brexit agreement related to various issues, such as the rights of citizens, divorce and Irish border.

Parliament entered the first resolution in this agreement on Tuesday, January 15, 1969. Parliament members voted 432-202 to deny the agreement. Which is the largest defeat of the government in the council in history recently

Theresa may survive from the vote that is not trusted on January 16th and she revealed the plan. On January 21, the plan was criticized for being similar to the original agreement she proposed.

On January 29, the House of Representatives voted in May to return to Brussels to remove the parts that are the Irish backstop’s excuse of her plans and replaced by alternative preparations. But the European Union said Bolster is a plan to avoid heavy Irish borders if the UK and the European Union do not sign a free trade agreement during the post.

On August 28, 1969, Prime Minister Boris Johnson asked the Queen. The parliamentary suspended from mid-September until October 14 and approved This was seen as a way to stop the parliamentary membership (MPS) from blocking the chaos from the European Union. And some people even called as a coup, 11 judges of the Supreme Court, are unanimously considered the illegal movement on the 24th September and return

The Labor Party faced its own crisis after almost a dozen legislators decided to leave and established an independent group in the council. They condemned the failure of Corbyn in the opposition to the Jews in his party and his poor Brexit policy. Three representatives who are members of May’s Conservatives have left the position to join the independent group. They complained that Tories’s policies and priorities were determined by serial euroskeeptics in the group.

Brexit negotiation

British leaders in negotiations with Brussels were David Davis, Yorkshire MP, until 9 July 2018 when he resigned. He was replaced by the Minister of Housing of Dominic Raab as the Secretary of Brexit Raab resigned from the protests on 15 November 1918. He was replaced by Stephen Barclay, Minister of Public Health.

The chief negotiator of the European Union is Michel Barnier, a French politician.

Preparing to talk about negotiations Revealing the birds in the way of both sides per process The United Kingdom wants to negotiate with the withdrawal conditions along with the after-export relationship agreement with Europe. While Brussels wants to perform adequate action regarding divorce conditions within October 2017, then move to trade agreement In the agreement that the opinion that both against and the anti-BREXIT saw that it was a sign of weakness, the British negotiations were accepted as a sort of EU.

Citizen

One of the most difficult political issues that Brexit’s negociants receive is the rights of the European Union citizens living in the UK and the British citizens living in the European Union.

The withdrawal agreement helps to move the citizens of the European Union and the United Kingdom completely until the end of the transition period. After the change period, they will maintain their rights in their living if they are still working with sufficient or related resources. To raise the status of their stay permanent, they must apply to the host country. The rights of these citizens can be used immediately if the UK collapsed without ratification of the agreement.

The European Union citizens leave England more steadily since the referendum. “The Net Relocation of the European Union, while also increasing the overall population has decreased to the final level in 2009. We also see the EU8 citizens increase – those from countries in Central and Eastern Europe, such as Pau. Land Brexit’s financial settlement “BREXIT Bill” is a financial agreement in the UK as Brussels debt after withdrawing money.

The withdrawal agreement does not mention specific numbers. But it is expected to be as high as 39 billion pounds as specified in Downing street. The total amount includes financial aid. The United Kingdom will proceed during the transition period. Because it will act as a member state of the European Union.

The United Kingdom will receive funding from the European Union project during the change period. And the share of the assets at the end of it, including the capital paid to the European Investment Bank (EIB)

The agreement of December 2017 has fixed a long merge point which threatens to cancel all negotiations. The Barnier team launched the first volley in May 2017 with the release of the document that lists the 70 strange juristic persons that it will take into account when making a table. Billing Financial Times expects the total amount to be equal to € 100 billion; Net from the UK’s assets The final bill will be “in the region € 55 billion to € 75billion.

At the same time, Davis’s team denied that the EU would like to send the desired method to the United Kingdom. In August, he told the BBC that he would not follow the draft within October. The schedule for assessment “Sufficient progress” on various issues such as billing The following month he told the council that Brexit’s billing negotiations will continue.

Davis presented this rejection for the House of Lords as a negotiation strategy. But domestic politics may explain his silence. Boris Johnson, the campaign for Brexit, called EU “extortion” on July 11, 2017 and agreed with Sat. Sat. MPs in Brussels can “blow the whistle” if they want “money”.

In September 1917, the city of Florence, the spokesman of May said that the United Kingdom would “Respect the promise we made during our members,” Michel Barnier confirmed to reporters in October 2019 that the United Kingdom will pay something owed.

Northern Ireland border

The new withdrawal agreement replaces the Irish backstop provisions that conflict with the protocol. This revised agreement states that the entire United Kingdom will leave the European Union to Brexit, but Northern Ireland will comply with the European Union regulations and VAT law when related to products and the British government will charge VAT on behalf of European Union Which means that there is a limited customs in the Irish Sea and check at the important harbor Four years after the end of the conversion period, the Northern Ireland General will be able to vote in this agreement.

The backing became the main reason for the impetary of Brexit. It guarantees that there will be no “Solid border” between Northern Ireland and Ireland. It is an insurance policy that makes the United Kingdom in the EU Customs Union with Northern Ireland according to the single market rules of the European Union. Rear support, which means temporary and replaced by the subsequent agreement, will be removed if both the British and the European Union give their consent. May not be able to gather enough support for her management due to it EUROSKEPTIC representatives members want her to increase legal binding changes because they are afraid that it will compromise the independence of the country and may last long. The European Union leaders have refused to remove it and have released a time rule or allow England to withdraw the power. On March 11, 2019, the two sides signed the treaty in Strasbourg, which has not changed Withdrawal agreement, but added “meaningful legal certification”. It is not enough to convince Brexiteers to work hard.

For decades in the second half of the 20th century, the violence between Protestant and Catholic sects was destroyed over Northern Ireland. And the boundaries between the English countryside And the Republic of Ireland to the south has been since the Good Friday agreement in 1998, causing almost all borders except the speed limit signal, which changes from miles per hour in the north.

Allowing supporters to reduce economic forecasts under the label “Project Fear” Pro-Brexit series related to UK Independence Party (UKIP), which was established to combat Is a member of the European Union responds by saying That the worst situation of the Ministry of Finance at 4,300 pounds per household is the basement bargain for the restoration of national freedom and safe and safe.

Although leavers often focus on pride, safety and national sovereignty, they still have economic arguments. For example, Boris Johnson, a mayor of London until May 2016 and became a foreign minister in May, took the position the day before voting. “The European politicians will fight for trade negotiations.” The next day in terms of “commercial interest”, the maternity leave of labor professionals. Brexit has written a report with an economist group in September 2017, which predicts an increase. Up 7% per GDP annually, the largest profit will be the least income.

Vote for the official campaign, BREXIT, ranking the page, “Vote votes” on the website, claiming that the UK can save 350 million pounds per week: “We can spend money in priorities such as NHS [National Health Service] School and Housing” In May 2016, the United Kingdom Statistical Agency Which is an independent public agency saying that such numbers have more net income “Is a misunderstanding and destroying confidence in official statistics However, the survey in mid-June of IPSOS MORI found that 47% of the country believes that the claim The day after the referendum Nigel Farage co-founder UKIP and brought it until November rejected the numbers. And said that he was not closely related to the vote. May still reacts. International trade is expected to be reduced due to Brexit, although England will negotiate a free trade agreement, Dr. Monique Ibell, former joint research director of the National Economic and Social Research Institute expects that trade, products and services. England will decrease -22%. If the European Union is replaced by free trade agreements other free trade agreements may not be a sagging: Ebell saw an agreement with Brics (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China, and South Africa), supporting a total of 2.2%; Agreement with the United States, Canada, Australia and New Zealand will be slightly improved at 2.6%.

“The single market is a deep and comprehensive trade agreement with the aim to reduce the problem. And non-tax obstacles,” Ebell wrote in January 2017 “while non-European Union do not seem to be effective in reducing obstacles important for service trade.”

General Elections June 2017

On April 18, May demanded the sudden election on June 8, although the previous contract will not hold until the year 2020. The election at the time recommended may expand the scope of the 330 parliament (with 650 seats in the Commons) employment increased rapidly in the survey. However, receiving help from Tory Flip-Flop in the proposal for the industrial estate for the final patient care.

The Conservative Party lost their majority, winning 318 seats for the Labor of 262, the National Party of Scotland won 35, with other Party 35, Hanging Results, Parliament, sent a question in May’s mandate to negotiate BREXIT and brought labor leaders and Liberal Democrats to resign

Speaking next year, ministers at home, No. 10, Downing Road, may call her to post a message that “It is clear that there is only a conservative party and the union party.” The official name of Tories – “is righteous and The ability to ensure that confidence by ordering the majority in the council. “Conservative Party agreed with the Democratic Union Party of Northern Ireland, which won 10 seats to establish a party government.

Referendum of Scotland Independence

The politicians in Scotland pushed to have a second independence referendum after Brexit’s vote, but the results of the election on June 8, 2017, made their efforts diminished. The Scottish National Party (SNP) lost 21 seats in the Westminster Parliament.

There is the only scottor who voted out of the EU. As the United Kingdom Election Commission stated that fish had fallen to 49.9%, the overall country denied a referendum of 62.0% to 38.0% due to Scotland having only 8.4% of the UK population. However, the voting remains – including Northern Ireland, which accounted for only 2.9% of the UK population – with enormous surplus from Brexit support in England and Wales.

Scotland joined England and Wales to establish Great Britain in the year. Prof. 1707 and the relationship is always tumored. SNP, which was founded in 1930, with only six from the 650 seats in Westminster in 2010. However,in the following year has been established a majority of the government in Parliament. The Holyrood part is because of the promise of a referendum. Scotland’s freedom

Referendum of Scotland’s Independence 2014

The referendum was held in 2014, seeing the independent side, allergic to 44.7% of the score; The result is 84.6% far from the release of independence. Although the voting encourages the nationalism SNP to support 56 from 59 Scottish seats at Westminster in the following year, overtake Lib Dems to become a big party. Third in the UK as a whole The plan of the UK Election Suddenly has a clear division between England and Wales, which is ruled by Tory Blue and the use of red labor from time to time and all yellow Scotland.

When the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, Scotland was exhausted. The combination of increased nationalism and strong support for Europe makes it almost as soon as they call.

What will be the freedom?

Scotland’s economic situation also caused questions about the future. Assuming as an independent country Oil prices have affected government financial status. In May 2014, tax revenue forecast of 2015-2016 from the northern sea drilling of 3.4 billion pounds to 9 billion pounds, but collected 60 million pounds less than 1.0% of the center of the forecast. In fact, these numbers are assumptions due to Scotland’s finances not completely low. But the estimates depend on the country’s geographic share in the northern sea drilling, so they show what one might expect as an independent country.

The debate that the Currency at Independent Scotland used to be revived former SNP leader Alex Salmond, who was the first prime minister of Scotland until November 2014, told Financial times that this country can leave the pound and introduced the currency. Their money can be freely floating or fixed with the pound. He was disqualified from joining the euro. But others confirm that Scotland must join the European Union. It is possible to use the pound which will mean control over the monetary policy.

UPSIDES for some people

In contrast, the weak currency floating in the global market may be beneficial to the UK manufacturer that exports products. Industries that rely on many exports may benefit some of the top 10 exports from the United Kingdom (as USD):

Engine pump machine: US $ 63.9 billion (13.9% of all exports)
Metal gems are valuable: $ 53 billion (11.5%)
Vehicle: US $ 50.7 billion (11%)
Pharmaceuticals: $ 36 billion (7.8%)
Oil: 33.2 billion USD (7.2%)
Electronics: US $ 29 billion (6.3%)
Spaceship plane: $ 18.9 billion (4.1%)
Medical equipment and tricks: $ 18400000000 (4%)
Organic chemicals: $ 14 billion (3%)
Plastic: US $ 11.8 billion (2.6%)
Some sectors are ready to benefit from the exit. Multinational companies with names in the FTSE 100 index tend to see more revenue.

Norwegian version: Join EEA

The first option is for the United Kingdom to join Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein in the European Economic Zone (EEA), which provides access to the single market of the European Union for most products and services. At the same time The European Union is outside the customs union. Therefore, the United Kingdom can enter a trade agreement with countries outside the European Union. However, the United Kingdom will have to comply with the European Union’s law, while losing the ability to influence these laws through the European Council of the country. And the right to vote in parliament Europe In September 2017, May is called this agreement. “Losing control of democracy” cannot be accepted

David Davis expressed interest in the form of Norway to answer the question he received from the US Chamber in Washington. “It’s what we think. But not at the top of our list, “he refers to the specific European Free Trade Association (EFTA), which is the same as EEA offering access to a single market. Although the Customs Union EFTA used to be a large organization, most members leave the European Union Today it consists of Norwegian, Iceland, Lichtenstein and Switzerland; All except Switzerland is also a member of EEA.

Switzerland version

The relationship between Switzerland and the European Union, which is under the 20 main bilateral agreements with this group, similar to the EEA agreement, Switzerland is also a member of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA). Switzerland helped to set up the EEA, but people did not accept the referendum in 1992.

This country allows people to move for free and is a member of the Schengen area without a passport. It follows the rules of the single market without talking much. Stay outside the Customs Union, allowing negotiating free trade agreements with the third country, usually, but not always. It has negotiated with the countries in the EEA. Switzerland has access to a single market for products. (Except agriculture) but not service (Except insurance) It pays a small amount.

WTO: Go alone

Do you want to go out? You have gone out if the UK and the European Union cannot agree on future relationships. They will return to the World Trade Terms (WTO). Although this initial value is not all straightforward. The current United Kingdom is a member of the World Trade Organization through the European Union, therefore having to separate the tax schedule from the group and separate the debts caused by trade disputes that are still in operation. This event has already begun.

Trading with the European Union in terms of WTO is a situation that “do not agree” that the conservative government has proposed to be an acceptable alternative – even though most observers see this as a negotiation strategy. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of England, Liam Fox, said in July 2017, “People talk about WTO as if it were the end of the world. But they forgot that that is the way they trade with the United States with China and Japan today With India with our bays and commercial relations, strong and healthy. “

For some industries, taxes outside the European Union should be heavily affected: the United Kingdom car exports produced 77% and 58% of these to Europe. The European Union charged 10% tax for imported cars. Monique Ebell of NIESR estimates that the exit of the single market of the European Union will reduce the trade of goods and overall services of England – not just with the European Union – by 22-30%.

The UK will not only cancel the trade agreement with the European Union. Under any circumstances above, it may lose the trade agreement that the country has attacked 63 third countries as well as progress in negotiations. Other agreements Any replacement of these things and adding new things is an uncertain opportunity. In an interview with Politico in September 2017, the Minister of Trade Liam Fox said that his office was founded in July 2016, facing the third country, some countries who want to negotiate free trade agreements because of lack of ability.

FOX wants to reverse the European trade agreement available to the new agreement. But some countries may not be willing to give the UK (66 million people 2.6 trillion dollars GDP), the same conditions as the European Union.

Affecting the United States

The companies in the United States in many sectors have invested in the UK for many years. The American company has received 9% of foreign affiliates profit around the world from the UK since 2000 in 2014, only the US company invested a total of 588 thousand. US dollars in the UK The United States also hired many English people. In fact, the US company is one of the UK’s largest job markets. The product of US subsidiaries in the UK is $ 153 billion in 2013, the UK plays an important role in the global infrastructure of the organization from America property under international sales management and research and development progress (R & D), the American company suggested that the United Kingdom is a strategic gateway to other countries in the European Union. Brexit will affect the profit of the company. The affiliates and share prices of many companies that comply with the UK strategy, which may make them consider their operations with British members and the European Union.

American companies and investors who are at risk of European banks and the credit market may be affected by credit risk. Banks in Europe may have to change the securities worth 123 billion dollars. Depending on the method In addition, the debt of the United Kingdom may not be included in the emergency reserves of the Bank in Europe, which causes liquidity problems. Supported assets from Europe have been denied since 2007. This reduction tends to be more intensified at the moment, which England chose to leave.

Who will leave the European Union?

Political debate is not limited to the United Kingdom. Most European Union members have a strong Euro movement, which while they have tried to win the national power, has a great influence on national politics. In some countries, there is a chance that such movements can secure the European Union member referendum.

In May 2016, the IPSOS global research company revealed that most respondents in Italy and France believe that their country should have a referendum on becoming an EU member.

Italy

The fragile banking sector of Italy has pushed the wedge between the European Union with the Italian government, which gave a grant to help the mother and pop shareholders not to be “bail” according to the European Union rules. The government must cancel the budget of 1919 when the European Union threatened to boycott and reduce the budget deficit according to the plan from 2.4% of GDP to 2.04%.

Matteo Salvini, the head of the Northern league of Italy and the Deputy Prime Minister of the country calls for a referendum of the European Union members. After the vote for Brexit, said “This vote is a place to slap everyone who says Europe. Is his own business And the Italians do not have to mess with that. “The North League has a partner in the Five Star Movement (M5S), which is the founder of the former comedian. Beppe Grillo has called for a referendum on membership. Italy is in the euro, even though it is not the European Union. Both sides established a mixed government in 2018 and served as the Prime Minister of Zhuseppe.

France

Marine Le Pen, the leader of Eurosceptic National Front (FN) of France, praised Brexit votes that are the winners for nationalism and sovereignty throughout Europe: “Like a lot of French. I am very happy that the British people hold and create. The right choice, what we think is not possible yesterday, became possible, “she lost the French presidential election to Emmanuel Macron in May 2017, receiving only 33.9%.

Macron warns that the demand for “frexit” will increase if the European Union does not see reform from the IFOP survey of Feb 2019. 40% of French citizens 40% want the country to leave the European Union. Frexit is one of the claims of the group. Yellow vest protest.